Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in November?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 87¢ · $458 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$457.72
-$13.22
88.5¢ → 87¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DI Dimpled-Foal | Yesavg 87.7¢ | $298.63 | $309.88 | +$4.44 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
 Udonsan | Yesavg 91¢ | $115.26 | $110.19 | -$5.07 | 79% 250-67 (317) |
 PippiTraderCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $10.85 | $15.67 | +$2.41 | 61% 313-200 (513) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $29.98 | $14.39 | -$15.59 | 62% 795-490 (1285) |
SS ssddssd<$100 | Yesavg 82¢ | $6.83 | $7.58 | +$0.58 | 52% 338-316 (654) |
Invested
$298.63
Value
$309.88
PnL
+$4.44
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
UdonsanInvested
$115.26
Value
$110.19
PnL
-$5.07
Record
79%
250-67 (317)
PippiTraderCTR<$100Invested
$10.85
Value
$15.67
PnL
+$2.41
Record
61%
313-200 (513)
Invested
$29.98
Value
$14.39
PnL
-$15.59
Record
62%
795-490 (1285)
Invested
$6.83
Value
$7.58
PnL
+$0.58
Record
52%
338-316 (654)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.