Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (72%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 28¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$3.3K
$-1.2K
56.4¢ → 28.4¢
-50% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 72%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x5F45b60C29d6e4D55c0bFd8dDD39ad45C5e0a77A-1761473032186CTR | Noavg 52¢ | $866.31 | $1.4K | +$158.27 | 55% 286-236 (522) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 45.8¢ | $1.4K | $891.98 | -$492.08 | 63% 770-443 (1213) |
 PippiTrader | Yesavg 45.8¢ | $647.41 | $573.79 | -$50.98 | 59% 265-183 (448) |
C0 C03BCTR | Noavg 60¢ | $1.9K | $408.62 | $-1.4K | 85% 687-120 (807) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Noavg 12.1¢ | $228 | $4.41 | +$576.41 | 18% 527-2364 (2891) |
Invested
$866.31
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$158.27
Record
55%
286-236 (522)
Invested
$1,384.06
Value
$891.98
PnL
-$492.08
Record
63%
770-443 (1213)
PippiTraderInvested
$647.41
Value
$573.79
PnL
-$50.98
Record
59%
265-183 (448)
Invested
$1,881.26
Value
$408.62
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
85%
687-120 (807)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$228
Value
$4.41
PnL
+$576.41
Record
18%
527-2364 (2891)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.