Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 Week of November 9 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 37¢ · $851 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$851.45
$95.91
39¢ → 36.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HU hugecaulkCTR | Noavg 40.8¢ | $420 | $391.31 | -$28.69 | — 0-17 (17) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 59¢ | $283.04 | $383.79 | +$100.74 | 48% 70-75 (145) |
TE test456y78<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $31.2 | $32 | +$0.8 | 2% 1-56 (57) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 9¢ | $5.4 | $22.8 | +$17.4 | 17% 10-48 (58) |
EA Eager47259<$100 | Yesavg 59¢ | $15.9 | $21.56 | +$5.66 | 38% 20-33 (53) |
Invested
$420
Value
$391.31
PnL
-$28.69
Record
—
0-17 (17)
Invested
$283.04
Value
$383.79
PnL
+$100.74
Record
48%
70-75 (145)
Invested
$31.2
Value
$32
PnL
+$0.8
Record
2%
1-56 (57)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$5.4
Value
$22.8
PnL
+$17.4
Record
17%
10-48 (58)
Invested
$15.9
Value
$21.56
PnL
+$5.66
Record
38%
20-33 (53)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.