Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in November?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 94¢ · $21K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$21.0K
$57.77
97.1¢ → 94¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
8h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CH chriszyy3 | Noavg 97.1¢ | $19.4K | $19.1K | -$366.65 | — |
TO TokorCTR | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $597.2 | $960 | +$362.8 | — |
 Talophex | Noavg 97.1¢ | $485.5 | $667.1 | -$13.12 | — |
 boyauCTR | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $49.21 | $100.56 | +$51.35 | — |
 Haradwaith<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $90.39 | $88.14 | -$2.25 | — |
TE test456y78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $49.79 | $75.63 | +$25.84 | — |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $23 | $22 | -$1 | — |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $1.29 | $2.09 | +$0.79 | — |
Invested
$19,425.69
Value
$19.1K
PnL
-$366.65
Record
—
Invested
$597.2
Value
$960
PnL
+$362.8
Record
—
TalophexInvested
$485.5
Value
$667.1
PnL
-$13.12
Record
—
boyauCTRInvested
$49.21
Value
$100.56
PnL
+$51.35
Record
—
Haradwaith<$100Invested
$90.39
Value
$88.14
PnL
-$2.25
Record
—
Invested
$49.79
Value
$75.63
PnL
+$25.84
Record
—
Invested
$23
Value
$22
PnL
-$1
Record
—
Invested
$1.29
Value
$2.09
PnL
+$0.79
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.