Will world GDP growth be 3.0% in 2026?

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 15, 2027

Yes13¢No87¢Ends Fri, Jan 15, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 64%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$147.26

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 87.4¢

+15% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes13%

No87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$994.46

Total Shares1,169

Combined PnL+$143.18

Yes4 traders

Total Value$76.32

Total Shares618

Combined PnL+$4.08

No — 64%Yes — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

815h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Noavg 72.1¢	$614.74	$712.25	+$138.46	55% 16-13 (29)
DO donthackme	Noavg 85.7¢	$228.39	$238.07	+$9.68	73% 12971-4909 (17880)
RememberAmalekCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.6¢	$47.84	$58.08	+$10.24	55% 1031-854 (1885)
LornaPredicts<$100	Noavg 88.2¢	$54.39	$16.7	-$3.49	20% 2781-10948 (13729)
CR cry.eth2CTR<$100	Yes	$14.83	$14.83	+$0	40% 9836-14980 (24816)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 80.9¢	$58.08	$12.87	-$0.6	39% 3153-4977 (8130)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 83.5¢	$24.29	$10.02	-$0	14% 508-3080 (3588)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 72.1¢	$17.05	$3.65	-$0.79	76% 12513-3844 (16357)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 29.9¢	$7.48	$2.93	-$3.27	51% 151-144 (295)
WO wokerjoesleeper<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$10	$0.88	-$0.08	33% 6646-13590 (20236)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.1¢	$52.65	$0.5	-$2.89	18% 1302-6126 (7428)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Invested

$614.74

Value

$712.25

PnL

+$138.46

Record

55%

16-13 (29)

donthackme

Invested

$228.39

Value

$238.07

PnL

+$9.68

Record

73%

12971-4909 (17880)

RememberAmalekCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.84

Value

$58.08

PnL

+$10.24

Record

55%

1031-854 (1885)

LornaPredicts<$100

Invested

$54.39

Value

$16.7

PnL

-$3.49

Record

20%

2781-10948 (13729)

cry.eth2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.83

Value

$14.83

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

9836-14980 (24816)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$58.08

Value

$12.87

PnL

-$0.6

Record

39%

3153-4977 (8130)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$24.29

Value

$10.02

PnL

-$0

Record

14%

508-3080 (3588)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$17.05

Value

$3.65

PnL

-$0.79

Record

76%

12513-3844 (16357)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.48

Value

$2.93

PnL

-$3.27

Record

51%

151-144 (295)

wokerjoesleeper<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$0.88

PnL

-$0.08

Record

33%

6646-13590 (20236)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.65

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$2.89

Record

18%

1302-6126 (7428)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 87%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Late

815h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (8 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.9%

87.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.