Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Winston Peters be the next Prime Minister of New Zealand after the 2026 elections?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Nov 7
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$0.19
-$7.13
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 35%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 35% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AK akrollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $1.99 | $0.03 | -$1.96 | 32% 338-724 (1062) |
KA kaxel78CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.89 | $0.03 | -$0.86 | 31% 285-646 (931) |
KL klli27CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $1.89 | $0.03 | -$1.85 | 31% 317-693 (1010) |
ZE zerone777CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.85 | $0.03 | -$0.82 | 40% 412-614 (1026) |
LI LikaseentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.85 | $0.03 | -$0.82 | 29% 203-508 (711) |
VA Vale54holiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $0.85 | $0.03 | -$0.82 | 29% 188-467 (655) |
Invested
$1.99
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.96
Record
32%
338-724 (1062)
Invested
$0.89
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.86
Record
31%
285-646 (931)
Invested
$1.89
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$1.85
Record
31%
317-693 (1010)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.82
Record
40%
412-614 (1026)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.82
Record
29%
203-508 (711)
Invested
$0.85
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$0.82
Record
29%
188-467 (655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.