Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (54%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will William Contreras win the 2026 World Series MVP?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 46¢ · $240 held · ends Nov 16
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$240.12
$0.36
Research grade
NeutralYes at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 63.7¢ | $248.36 | $226.8 | -$16.91 | 32% 273-593 (866) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 63.7¢ | $154.24 | $114.6 | -$41.49 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.2¢ | $87.61 | $112.19 | +$24.58 | |
0X 0x3814198398E2d02c0e8fBa652345995cF84417bC-1782140092998CTR<$100 | Yesavg 46.3¢ | $9.26 | $9.26 | +$0 | 55% 253-205 (458) |
 probability<$100 | Noavg 56.5¢ | $3.71 | $4.07 | +$0.36 | 42% 1341-1815 (3156) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$248.36
Value
$226.8
PnL
-$16.91
Record
32%
273-593 (866)
Both legs:
Invested
$9.26
Value
$9.26
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
253-205 (458)
probability<$100Invested
$3.71
Value
$4.07
PnL
+$0.36
Record
42%
1341-1815 (3156)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.