Will Will Venable win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (88%) · Yes at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 88%
$3.4K
$369.8
84.1¢ → 93.8¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
748h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 macrosteaks | Yes | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$177.08 | 55% 3435-2832 (6267) |
 JSG3 | Yesavg 78¢ | $700.39 | $831.17 | +$148.28 | 58% 14-10 (24) |
 Istaroth | Yesavg 92.9¢ | $707.56 | $680.85 | -$1.43 | 16% 427-2300 (2727) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Yesavg 87.2¢ | $332.48 | $191.97 | +$0.8 | 45% 2406-2980 (5386) |
AB ABC12345654321<$100 | Yes | $14.88 | $32.43 | +$26.97 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
CO cowcat<$100 | Yesavg 44.5¢ | $5.18 | $11.11 | +$5.93 | 53% 1588-1422 (3010) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.5¢ | $16.68 | $8.63 | +$5.13 | 61% 15629-9929 (25558) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $0.1 | $7.03 | +$7.05 | 51% 2129-2037 (4166) |
macrosteaksInvested
$1,600.37
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$177.08
Record
55%
3435-2832 (6267)
JSG3Invested
$700.39
Value
$831.17
PnL
+$148.28
Record
58%
14-10 (24)
IstarothInvested
$707.56
Value
$680.85
PnL
-$1.43
Record
16%
427-2300 (2727)
Invested
$332.48
Value
$191.97
PnL
+$0.8
Record
45%
2406-2980 (5386)
Invested
$14.88
Value
$32.43
PnL
+$26.97
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
Invested
$5.18
Value
$11.11
PnL
+$5.93
Record
53%
1588-1422 (3010)
Invested
$16.68
Value
$8.63
PnL
+$5.13
Record
61%
15629-9929 (25558)
Invested
$0.1
Value
$7.03
PnL
+$7.05
Record
51%
2129-2037 (4166)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.