Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Wildwood" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 4m?

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (86%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $12 held · ends Nov 8

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 86%

Total Value

$11.79

Combined PnL

-$58.85

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$11.55

Total Shares12

Combined PnL+$0.04

Yes6 traders

Total Value$0.24

Total Shares474

Combined PnL-$58.89

No — 14%Yes — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar<$100	Noavg 37.6¢	$10.41	$11.55	+$0.04	52% 31261-29162 (60423)
NO northdrawerCTR<$100	Yes	$0.08	$0.08	-$26.73	58% 16901-12240 (29141)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.12	$0.04	-$13.25	17% 406-2045 (2451)
KA kaxel78CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$1.21	$0.04	-$1.17	30% 488-1154 (1642)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yes	$0.03	$0.03	-$10.3	27% 2563-6999 (9562)
PO pollo07CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.6¢	$0.89	$0.03	-$0.86	31% 519-1174 (1693)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yes	$0.02	$0.02	-$6.57	17% 1379-6723 (8102)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$10.41

Value

$11.55

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

31261-29162 (60423)

northdrawerCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$26.73

Record

58%

16901-12240 (29141)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$13.25

Record

17%

406-2045 (2451)

kaxel78CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.21

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$1.17

Record

30%

488-1154 (1642)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$10.3

Record

27%

2563-6999 (9562)

pollo07CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.89

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.86

Record

31%

519-1174 (1693)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.02

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$6.57

Record

17%

1379-6723 (8102)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Mature

46h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.