Will "Wildwood" 3rd Weekend Box Office be at least 6m?

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (10%) · Yes at 99¢ · $798 held · ends Nov 8

Yes99¢No1¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 10%

Total Value

$797.92

Combined PnL

-$43.73

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$746.75

Total Shares778

Combined PnL+$48.17

No9 traders

Total Value$51.16

Total Shares1,279

Combined PnL-$91.9

Yes — 10%No — 90%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdigging	Yesavg 88.3¢	$687.18	$746.75	+$48.17	63% 382-229 (611)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Noavg 9.9¢	$33.99	$10.6	-$18.18	22% 369-1344 (1713)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Noavg 12.3¢	$47.03	$10.56	-$22.51	27% 2545-6952 (9497)
NadmiCTR<$100	Noavg 4¢	$10.22	$10.22	+$0	47% 2082-2393 (4475)
SP SPLPBCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$18.4	$9.2	-$9.2	24% 797-2566 (3363)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Noavg 18.1¢	$69.96	$7.12	-$32.07	27% 611-1673 (2284)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 15.1¢	$17.31	$1.38	-$3.83	17% 396-1983 (2379)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$2.4	$0.8	-$1.6	53% 23817-20965 (44782)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$3.47	$0.64	-$2.82	26% 7359-21128 (28487)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Noavg 27¢	$2.32	$0.64	-$1.68	42% 2368-3245 (5613)

shovelingdigging

Yes

Invested

$687.18

Value

$746.75

PnL

+$48.17

Record

63%

382-229 (611)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Invested

$33.99

Value

$10.6

PnL

-$18.18

Record

22%

369-1344 (1713)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Invested

$47.03

Value

$10.56

PnL

-$22.51

Record

27%

2545-6952 (9497)

NadmiCTR<$100

Invested

$10.22

Value

$10.22

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2082-2393 (4475)

SPLPBCTR<$100

Invested

$18.4

Value

$9.2

PnL

-$9.2

Record

24%

797-2566 (3363)

lpgbCTR<$100

Invested

$69.96

Value

$7.12

PnL

-$32.07

Record

27%

611-1673 (2284)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$17.31

Value

$1.38

PnL

-$3.83

Record

17%

396-1983 (2379)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$0.8

PnL

-$1.6

Record

53%

23817-20965 (44782)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Invested

$3.47

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$2.82

Record

26%

7359-21128 (28487)

123987456CTR<$100

Invested

$2.32

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$1.68

Record

42%

2368-3245 (5613)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

10% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 89% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 90% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

98.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.