Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 3m?

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (56%) · Yes at 6.2¢ · $231 held · ended Nov 1

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 56%

Total Value

$230.86

Combined PnL

-$578.79

Smart Money Entry

15.8¢ → 6.2¢

-61% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$174.28

Total Shares180

Combined PnL-$0.21

Yes5 traders

Total Value$56.58

Total Shares3,975

Combined PnL-$578.58

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-56 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO godblessme2026	Noavg 98.9¢	$123.59	$122.94	-$0.65	42% 5989-8172 (14161)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR	Yesavg 15.8¢	$595.09	$49.1	-$545.99	36% 635-1125 (1760)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$25.01	$25.71	+$0.7	57% 17248-12904 (30152)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$19.98	$19.67	-$0.31	28% 5957-15587 (21544)
LU luciebotCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.5¢	$27.59	$7.3	-$20.28	37% 1395-2381 (3776)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$5.91	$5.96	+$0.05	37% 758-1274 (2032)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$7.84	$0.09	-$7.74	35% 107-199 (306)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$4.17	$0.05	-$4.12	55% 5875-4772 (10647)
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.7¢	$0.48	$0.04	-$0.44	17% 221-1066 (1287)

godblessme2026

Invested

$123.59

Value

$122.94

PnL

-$0.65

Record

42%

5989-8172 (14161)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR

Yes

Invested

$595.09

Value

$49.1

PnL

-$545.99

Record

36%

635-1125 (1760)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$25.01

Value

$25.71

PnL

+$0.7

Record

57%

17248-12904 (30152)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$19.98

Value

$19.67

PnL

-$0.31

Record

28%

5957-15587 (21544)

luciebotCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.59

Value

$7.3

PnL

-$20.28

Record

37%

1395-2381 (3776)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$5.91

Value

$5.96

PnL

+$0.05

Record

37%

758-1274 (2032)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.84

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$7.74

Record

35%

107-199 (306)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.17

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$4.12

Record

55%

5875-4772 (10647)

VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.48

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.44

Record

17%

221-1066 (1287)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-56 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.5%

6.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1236.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

1336.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.