Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 1 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 11m?

1 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (11%) · Yes at 28¢ · $797 held · ended Nov 1

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 11%

Total Value

$796.96

Combined PnL

$149.99

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 9 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$531.72

Total Shares1,872

Combined PnL+$159.66

No8 traders

Total Value$265.25

Total Shares373

Combined PnL-$9.66

Yes — 11%No — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SH shovelingdiggingCTR	Yesavg 19.9¢	$372.06	$531.72	+$159.66	61% 345-217 (562)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 77.4¢	$55.11	$72.55	-$8.81	37% 633-1096 (1729)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 74.5¢	$50.15	$48.19	-$1.96	56% 3732-2932 (6664)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 74.4¢	$44.05	$42.37	-$1.69	38% 751-1204 (1955)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100	Noavg 77.1¢	$45.04	$41.83	-$3.21	35% 554-1008 (1562)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 68¢	$20.4	$21.48	+$1.08	50% 7785-7688 (15473)
VE VerilyWinningly<$100	Noavg 80.1¢	$16.82	$15.04	-$2.32	17% 221-1047 (1268)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 82.3¢	$255.83	$12.4	+$8.56	53% 7522-6644 (14166)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 81.7¢	$12.72	$11.4	-$1.32	28% 5949-15562 (21511)

shovelingdiggingCTR

Yes

Invested

$372.06

Value

$531.72

PnL

+$159.66

Record

61%

345-217 (562)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$55.11

Value

$72.55

PnL

-$8.81

Record

37%

633-1096 (1729)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$50.15

Value

$48.19

PnL

-$1.96

Record

56%

3732-2932 (6664)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$44.05

Value

$42.37

PnL

-$1.69

Record

38%

751-1204 (1955)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100

Invested

$45.04

Value

$41.83

PnL

-$3.21

Record

35%

554-1008 (1562)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$21.48

PnL

+$1.08

Record

50%

7785-7688 (15473)

VerilyWinningly<$100

Invested

$16.82

Value

$15.04

PnL

-$2.32

Record

17%

221-1047 (1268)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$255.83

Value

$12.4

PnL

+$8.56

Record

53%

7522-6644 (14166)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$12.72

Value

$11.4

PnL

-$1.32

Record

28%

5949-15562 (21511)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

1 of 9 top traders (11%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

11% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.4%

28.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$228.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

328.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.