Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.9K
$415.11
77.7¢ → 99¢
+27% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-33 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
66h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cat-dog | Noavg 80.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$256.68 | 77% 104-31 (135) |
SH shovelingdigging | Noavg 57.6¢ | $186.93 | $321.97 | +$135.04 | 61% 345-217 (562) |
0X 0x5095e97281f28d4d8549fd3834802c24cbb793e | Noavg 89¢ | $210.14 | $235.88 | +$23.85 | 52% 302-275 (577) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $16.39 | $16.39 | +$0 | 35% 704-1298 (2002) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yes | $1.09 | $1.09 | +$0 | 50% 7792-7738 (15530) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $0.48 | $0.02 | -$0.46 | 17% 221-1065 (1286) |
cat-dogInvested
$1,099.86
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$256.68
Record
77%
104-31 (135)
Invested
$186.93
Value
$321.97
PnL
+$135.04
Record
61%
345-217 (562)
Invested
$210.14
Value
$235.88
PnL
+$23.85
Record
52%
302-275 (577)
Invested
$16.39
Value
$16.39
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
704-1298 (2002)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$1.09
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7792-7738 (15530)
Invested
$0.48
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0.46
Record
17%
221-1065 (1286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.