Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.5K
$251.12
81.2¢ → 97.2¢
+20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
1739h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE HerrieDavis | Noavg 79.9¢ | $818.83 | $994.96 | +$176.13 | 36% 2037-3642 (5679) |
 tja | Noavg 84¢ | $404.04 | $471.62 | +$63.73 | 73% 862-322 (1184) |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $900 | $18.8 | +$10 | 18% 525-2347 (2872) |
 TheKinginYellow<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $7.08 | $8.29 | +$1.2 | 68% 827-398 (1225) |
AV aviato<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.15 | $1.22 | +$0.05 | 84% 2423-446 (2869) |
Invested
$818.83
Value
$994.96
PnL
+$176.13
Record
36%
2037-3642 (5679)
tjaInvested
$404.04
Value
$471.62
PnL
+$63.73
Record
73%
862-322 (1184)
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$900
Value
$18.8
PnL
+$10
Record
18%
525-2347 (2872)
TheKinginYellow<$100Invested
$7.08
Value
$8.29
PnL
+$1.2
Record
68%
827-398 (1225)
Invested
$1.15
Value
$1.22
PnL
+$0.05
Record
84%
2423-446 (2869)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.