Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Wild Horse Nine get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$2.45
-$24.69
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Late
207h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tescatCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.48 | $1.56 | -$1.72 | 57% 399-297 (696) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $0.79 | $0.41 | -$11.87 | 63% 12918-7608 (20526) |
VE VerilyWinninglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $8.61 | $0.28 | -$8.33 | 17% 221-1047 (1268) |
AH aHjCzCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $2.96 | $0.1 | -$2.87 | 44% 4014-5074 (9088) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $0.54 | $0.08 | +$0.08 | 32% 6340-13238 (19578) |
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yes | $0.02 | $0.02 | +$0.02 | 29% 2876-7016 (9892) |
tescatCTR<$100Invested
$0.48
Value
$1.56
PnL
-$1.72
Record
57%
399-297 (696)
Invested
$0.79
Value
$0.41
PnL
-$11.87
Record
63%
12918-7608 (20526)
Invested
$8.61
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$8.33
Record
17%
221-1047 (1268)
Invested
$2.96
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$2.87
Record
44%
4014-5074 (9088)
Invested
$0.54
Value
$0.08
PnL
+$0.08
Record
32%
6340-13238 (19578)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
+$0.02
Record
29%
2876-7016 (9892)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.