Will Werner Graf be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 99¢ · $277 held · ended Sep 20
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$276.82
-$45.84
89.9¢ → 99.3¢
+10% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
511h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
28 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA JAMJAMJAM4 | Noavg 89.8¢ | $235.39 | $260.2 | +$25.81 | 55% 3733-3055 (6788) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.3¢ | $7.01 | $7.3 | +$0.29 | 58% 21212-15411 (36623) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $32.09 | $4.3 | -$27.84 | 51% 154-147 (301) |
10 101456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.8¢ | $19.96 | $2.58 | -$17.38 | 52% 150-138 (288) |
 paddaaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $21 | $1.05 | -$19.95 | 57% 867-666 (1533) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.8¢ | $7.3 | $0.8 | -$6.49 | 38% 1819-2999 (4818) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $0.86 | $0.58 | -$0.27 | 73% 3098-1126 (4224) |
Invested
$235.39
Value
$260.2
PnL
+$25.81
Record
55%
3733-3055 (6788)
Invested
$7.01
Value
$7.3
PnL
+$0.29
Record
58%
21212-15411 (36623)
Invested
$32.09
Value
$4.3
PnL
-$27.84
Record
51%
154-147 (301)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$2.58
PnL
-$17.38
Record
52%
150-138 (288)
paddaaCTR<$100Invested
$21
Value
$1.05
PnL
-$19.95
Record
57%
867-666 (1533)
Invested
$7.3
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$6.49
Record
38%
1819-2999 (4818)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$0.86
Value
$0.58
PnL
-$0.27
Record
73%
3098-1126 (4224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.