Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Waymo operate in 24-27 cities on December 31 2026?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.0¢ · $144 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$144.38

Combined PnL

-$200.35

Smart Money Entry

8.6¢ → 3¢

-65% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$144.38

Total Shares5,039

Combined PnL-$200.35

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

745h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DE dedidancCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$1.58	$45.05	+$43.47	57% 109-82 (191)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 14.3¢	$192.44	$38.39	-$154.05	73% 11074-4085 (15159)
LornaPredictsCTR	Yesavg 11¢	$5.5	$34.68	-$3.94	21% 2284-8684 (10968)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$63.29	$13.41	-$50	56% 3736-2985 (6721)
HO HourglassCTR<$100	Yes	$3.79	$3.79	-$15.29	77% 9134-2746 (11880)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$3.27	$3.79	+$0.51	44% 4029-5217 (9246)
GO god83743894CTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$17.77	$3.57	-$14.21	49% 9047-9526 (18573)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.3¢	$8.55	$1.71	-$6.85	31% 1407-3191 (4598)

dedidancCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.58

Value

$45.05

PnL

+$43.47

Record

57%

109-82 (191)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$192.44

Value

$38.39

PnL

-$154.05

Record

73%

11074-4085 (15159)

LornaPredictsCTR

Yes

Invested

$5.5

Value

$34.68

PnL

-$3.94

Record

21%

2284-8684 (10968)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$63.29

Value

$13.41

PnL

-$50

Record

56%

3736-2985 (6721)

HourglassCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.79

Value

$3.79

PnL

-$15.29

Record

77%

9134-2746 (11880)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.27

Value

$3.79

PnL

+$0.51

Record

44%

4029-5217 (9246)

god83743894CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.77

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$14.21

Record

49%

9047-9526 (18573)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.55

Value

$1.71

PnL

-$6.85

Record

31%

1407-3191 (4598)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Late

745h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

19 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.2%

3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2307.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

2407.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.