Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Waymo operate in 16-19 cities on December 31 2026?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 17¢ · $900 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$900.3

Combined PnL

-$93.46

Smart Money Entry

19.4¢ → 17¢

-12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$825.85

Total Shares4,807

Combined PnL-$89.93

No1 trader

Total Value$74.45

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$3.52

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR	Yesavg 5.2¢	$130.56	$423.91	+$293.35	45% 4439-5419 (9858)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 36.2¢	$794.54	$386.2	-$391.81	48% 1352-1491 (2843)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 92¢	$77.97	$74.45	-$3.52	40% 6512-9780 (16292)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$3.95	$8.76	+$5.87	77% 12685-3871 (16556)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.7¢	$4.32	$6.97	+$2.66	53% 8553-7624 (16177)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616CTR

Yes

Invested

$130.56

Value

$423.91

PnL

+$293.35

Record

45%

4439-5419 (9858)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$794.54

Value

$386.2

PnL

-$391.81

Record

48%

1352-1491 (2843)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$77.97

Value

$74.45

PnL

-$3.52

Record

40%

6512-9780 (16292)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.95

Value

$8.76

PnL

+$5.87

Record

77%

12685-3871 (16556)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.32

Value

$6.97

PnL

+$2.66

Record

53%

8553-7624 (16177)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Late

826h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

16 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.6%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$437.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

537.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.