Will Washington Commanders win the 2026 NFC East?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 85¢ · $436 held · ends Jan 4, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$435.94
-$0.5
91.5¢ → 85¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
774h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AU auros2CTR | Yes | $217.3 | $217.3 | -$20.58 | — 6-1 (7) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 91.8¢ | $29.39 | $89.66 | -$8.98 | 53% 24124-21175 (45299) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $28.15 | $71.89 | +$25.96 | 40% 1593-2386 (3979) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7CTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.9¢ | $32.52 | $36.93 | +$4.41 | 44% 507-657 (1164) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 89.9¢ | $22.65 | $20.16 | -$1.32 | 58% 21564-15645 (37209) |
Invested
$217.3
Value
$217.3
PnL
-$20.58
Record
—
6-1 (7)
Invested
$29.39
Value
$89.66
PnL
-$8.98
Record
53%
24124-21175 (45299)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$28.15
Value
$71.89
PnL
+$25.96
Record
40%
1593-2386 (3979)
Invested
$32.52
Value
$36.93
PnL
+$4.41
Record
44%
507-657 (1164)
Invested
$22.65
Value
$20.16
PnL
-$1.32
Record
58%
21564-15645 (37209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.