Will Warsh be out as Fed Chair by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.4K
$55.99
95.9¢ → 98.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
1061h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Noavg 96¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$37.2 | 89% 1652-202 (1854) |
 GollumGekko | Noavg 96.2¢ | $811.69 | $830.67 | +$18.98 | 69% 2064-936 (3000) |
 wish- | Noavg 93¢ | $99.92 | $105.83 | +$5.91 | 79% 1167-318 (1485) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $14.58 | $9.84 | -$4.74 | 18% 519-2317 (2836) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $8.09 | $6.51 | -$1.36 | 47% 2033-2250 (4283) |
elmcap2Invested
$1,518.13
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$37.2
Record
89%
1652-202 (1854)
GollumGekkoInvested
$811.69
Value
$830.67
PnL
+$18.98
Record
69%
2064-936 (3000)
wish-Invested
$99.92
Value
$105.83
PnL
+$5.91
Record
79%
1167-318 (1485)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$14.58
Value
$9.84
PnL
-$4.74
Record
18%
519-2317 (2836)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$8.09
Value
$6.51
PnL
-$1.36
Record
47%
2033-2250 (4283)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.