Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Warren Schaeffer win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $0 held · ends Dec 19

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Dec 19, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.17

Combined PnL

-$8.96

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares342

Combined PnL-$8.96

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$2.35	$0.1	-$2.25	39% 2908-4509 (7417)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.04	$0.03	-$3.16	17% 396-1983 (2379)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.8¢	$2.34	$0.02	-$2.31	49% 6588-6939 (13527)
AL alex20011CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.01	$0.01	-$1.24	37% 4060-6783 (10843)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.35

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$2.25

Record

39%

2908-4509 (7417)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.04

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$3.16

Record

17%

396-1983 (2379)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.31

Record

49%

6588-6939 (13527)

alex20011CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.24

Record

37%

4060-6783 (10843)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.