Will Wang Chung-ming win the next Lienchiang County Magistrate election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$1.5K
$193.96
77.8¢ → 72.5¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LinaBell | Yesavg 81.7¢ | $738.95 | $671.92 | -$67.03 | 64% 1195-676 (1871) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 10.4¢ | $164.82 | $435.63 | +$239.47 | 52% 1148-1049 (2197) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 70¢ | $0.06 | $291.31 | +$20.02 | 55% 460-372 (832) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $72.89 | $71.89 | +$1.5 | 56% 15322-11880 (27202) |
LinaBellInvested
$738.95
Value
$671.92
PnL
-$67.03
Record
64%
1195-676 (1871)
Invested
$164.82
Value
$435.63
PnL
+$239.47
Record
52%
1148-1049 (2197)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$0.06
Value
$291.31
PnL
+$20.02
Record
55%
460-372 (832)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$72.89
Value
$71.89
PnL
+$1.5
Record
56%
15322-11880 (27202)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.