Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 7 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Wales win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $2 held · ends Jun 14, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 100%
$1.8
-$177.82
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
84h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $15.49 | $0.89 | -$90.12 | 31% 3243-7118 (10361) |
MI mildwindow27CTR<$100 | Yes | $44.96 | $0.59 | -$63.47 | 43% 8739-11399 (20138) |
PI PiEDawgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.26 | $0.15 | -$16.07 | 35% 1822-3400 (5222) |
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $4.17 | $0.08 | -$4.09 | 28% 576-1486 (2062) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.22 | $0.06 | -$0.17 | 17% 4496-22007 (26503) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $1.52 | $0.03 | -$3.13 | 23% 1782-6021 (7803) |
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.06 | $0.01 | -$0.78 | 39% 5748-9161 (14909) |
Invested
$15.49
Value
$0.89
PnL
-$90.12
Record
31%
3243-7118 (10361)
Invested
$44.96
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$63.47
Record
43%
8739-11399 (20138)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$16.07
Record
35%
1822-3400 (5222)
Invested
$4.17
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$4.09
Record
28%
576-1486 (2062)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$0.22
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$0.17
Record
17%
4496-22007 (26503)
Invested
$1.52
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$3.13
Record
23%
1782-6021 (7803)
Invested
$0.06
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.78
Record
39%
5748-9161 (14909)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.