Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Waldo Cortes Acosta be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$1.39

Combined PnL

-$143.93

Smart Money Entry

5.2¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$1.39

Total Shares2,771

Combined PnL-$143.93

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.2¢	$56.66	$0.55	-$56.11	63% 12948-7735 (20683)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$31.04	$0.29	-$30.74	79% 10611-2762 (13373)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$25.18	$0.24	-$24.95	60% 7178-4743 (11921)
VI VictorLudorumCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$19.91	$0.09	-$10.34	54% 6080-5238 (11318)
KL klli27CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$7.86	$0.07	-$7.79	30% 350-813 (1163)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$5.87	$0.06	-$5.82	36% 1887-3307 (5194)
VA vamosgamingCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$4.43	$0.04	-$4.39	25% 228-684 (912)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$2.32	$0.02	-$2.29	35% 704-1298 (2002)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$1.53	$0.01	-$1.51	55% 5874-4771 (10645)

graynotebook19CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$56.66

Value

$0.55

PnL

-$56.11

Record

63%

12948-7735 (20683)

LucerysCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.04

Value

$0.29

PnL

-$30.74

Record

79%

10611-2762 (13373)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.18

Value

$0.24

PnL

-$24.95

Record

60%

7178-4743 (11921)

VictorLudorumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.91

Value

$0.09

PnL

-$10.34

Record

54%

6080-5238 (11318)

klli27CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.86

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$7.79

Record

30%

350-813 (1163)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.87

Value

$0.06

PnL

-$5.82

Record

36%

1887-3307 (5194)

vamosgamingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.43

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$4.39

Record

25%

228-684 (912)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.32

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.29

Record

35%

704-1298 (2002)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.53

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.51

Record

55%

5874-4771 (10645)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.