Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Vox win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $150 held · ends Nov 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Nov 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$149.97

Combined PnL

-$244.51

Smart Money Entry

3¢ → 0.4¢

-88% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$117.59

Total Shares118

Combined PnL-$0.05

Yes8 traders

Total Value$32.38

Total Shares9,252

Combined PnL-$244.46

No — 11%Yes — 89%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

407h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 99.7¢	$117.65	$117.59	-$0.05	— 3-5 (8)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR	Yesavg 3¢	$128.39	$14.83	-$113.56	44% 46-59 (105)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$74.54	$8.61	-$65.93	56% 47-37 (84)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$42.61	$4.92	-$37.69	— 4-3 (7)
12 123987456CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$21.68	$2.59	-$19.09	— 8-2 (10)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$7.32	$0.85	-$6.47	— 0-2 (2)
JO JordanMooneyCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.7¢	$0.63	$0.36	-$0.27	— 2-0 (2)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.4¢	$1.03	$0.15	-$0.87	54% 19-16 (35)
broskyeCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$0.64	$0.07	-$0.56	—

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$117.65

Value

$117.59

PnL

-$0.05

Record

—

3-5 (8)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR

Yes

Invested

$128.39

Value

$14.83

PnL

-$113.56

Record

44%

46-59 (105)

balthazarCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$74.54

Value

$8.61

PnL

-$65.93

Record

56%

47-37 (84)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.61

Value

$4.92

PnL

-$37.69

Record

—

4-3 (7)

123987456CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.68

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$19.09

Record

—

8-2 (10)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.32

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$6.47

Record

—

0-2 (2)

JordanMooneyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.63

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$0.27

Record

—

2-0 (2)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.03

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.87

Record

54%

19-16 (35)

broskyeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.64

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.56

Record

—

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Late

407h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.4%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7026.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

7126.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.