Will Vox win the most seats in Girona in the 2026 Spanish general election?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 80¢ · $208 held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$208.24
-$52.42
99.7¢ → 79.7¢
-20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $89.73 | $71.69 | -$18.05 | 50% 4494-4439 (8933) |
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $79.9 | $63.83 | -$16.07 | 11% 35-271 (306) |
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $71.09 | $56.79 | -$14.3 | 35% 2910-5328 (8238) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $19.94 | $15.93 | -$4.01 | 52% 5320-4824 (10144) |
balthazar<$100Invested
$89.73
Value
$71.69
PnL
-$18.05
Record
50%
4494-4439 (8933)
Invested
$79.9
Value
$63.83
PnL
-$16.07
Record
11%
35-271 (306)
Lucerys<$100Invested
$71.09
Value
$56.79
PnL
-$14.3
Record
35%
2910-5328 (8238)
Invested
$19.94
Value
$15.93
PnL
-$4.01
Record
52%
5320-4824 (10144)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.