Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be less than 58%?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $17 held · ended Oct 25

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$17.36

Combined PnL

$-2.2K

Smart Money Entry

19.4¢ → 0.1¢

-99% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$17.36

Total Shares11,181

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$904.8	$7.38	-$898.01	46% 1569-1829 (3398)
GO god83743894CTR	Yesavg 20¢	$623.08	$4.68	-$618.62	49% 9048-9530 (18578)
DO donthackmeCTR	Yesavg 20¢	$503.72	$3.78	-$499.94	73% 11083-4091 (15174)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR	Yesavg 19.3¢	$113.36	$0.61	-$85.56	38% 2935-4691 (7626)
TY TyshaCTR<$100	Yesavg 8.5¢	$20.72	$0.36	-$20.35	72% 8554-3324 (11878)
LE LesterDiamondCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$13.02	$0.21	-$12.81	64% 5396-3050 (8446)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.12	$0.19	+$0.06	44% 4031-5222 (9253)
FO fourcoin15mCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$20.56	$0.15	-$20.41	49% 4991-5215 (10206)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR

Yes

Invested

$904.8

Value

$7.38

PnL

-$898.01

Record

46%

1569-1829 (3398)

god83743894CTR

Yes

Invested

$623.08

Value

$4.68

PnL

-$618.62

Record

49%

9048-9530 (18578)

donthackmeCTR

Yes

Invested

$503.72

Value

$3.78

PnL

-$499.94

Record

73%

11083-4091 (15174)

GingerMcKennaCTR

Yes

Invested

$113.36

Value

$0.61

PnL

-$85.56

Record

38%

2935-4691 (7626)

TyshaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.72

Value

$0.36

PnL

-$20.35

Record

72%

8554-3324 (11878)

LesterDiamondCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.02

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$12.81

Record

64%

5396-3050 (8446)

aHjCzCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.06

Record

44%

4031-5222 (9253)

fourcoin15mCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.56

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$20.41

Record

49%

4991-5215 (10206)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.