Will Vitality Win the PGL Major Singapore 2026?

16 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (94%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ends Dec 15

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Tue, Dec 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 94%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$38.05

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 71¢

+4% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,642

Combined PnL+$39.27

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.5

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$1.22

No — 94%Yes — 6%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

77h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 94% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 68¢	$251.6	$262.7	+$11.1	50% 4487-4433 (8920)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 69.9¢	$187.42	$190.42	+$3	52% 5296-4806 (10102)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 67.9¢	$101.85	$106.5	+$4.65	10% 25-236 (261)
LI Likaseent	Noavg 68¢	$100.55	$104.99	+$4.44	26% 360-1007 (1367)
KA kaxel78	Noavg 68¢	$100.55	$104.99	+$4.44	28% 522-1370 (1892)
ZE zerone777	Noavg 68¢	$100.55	$104.99	+$4.44	30% 511-1182 (1693)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 68¢	$67.59	$70.57	+$2.98	28% 367-935 (1302)
GO god83743894<$100	Noavg 69¢	$62.1	$63.9	+$1.8	4% 15-322 (337)
Haradwaith<$100	Noavg 70¢	$48.61	$37.94	+$0.53	— 8-8 (16)
AL alex20011<$100	Noavg 68¢	$34	$35.5	+$1.5	44% 1068-1376 (2444)
PO pollo07<$100	Noavg 68¢	$34	$35.5	+$1.5	27% 499-1317 (1816)
VI VictorLudorum<$100	Noavg 68¢	$20.4	$21.3	+$0.9	— 0-13 (13)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 68.1¢	$15.35	$16	+$0.65	52% 244-227 (471)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 67¢	$4.74	$5.02	+$0.28	36% 173-306 (479)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 67¢	$3.89	$4.12	+$0.23	35% 2882-5322 (8204)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 71¢	$108.53	$1.48	-$3.17	— 0-12 (12)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$18.91	$0.5	-$1.22	— 1-10 (11)

balthazar

Invested

$251.6

Value

$262.7

PnL

+$11.1

Record

50%

4487-4433 (8920)

cigarettes

Invested

$187.42

Value

$190.42

PnL

+$3

Record

52%

5296-4806 (10102)

quietparcel

Invested

$101.85

Value

$106.5

PnL

+$4.65

Record

10%

25-236 (261)

Likaseent

Invested

$100.55

Value

$104.99

PnL

+$4.44

Record

26%

360-1007 (1367)

kaxel78

Invested

$100.55

Value

$104.99

PnL

+$4.44

Record

28%

522-1370 (1892)

zerone777

Invested

$100.55

Value

$104.99

PnL

+$4.44

Record

30%

511-1182 (1693)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$67.59

Value

$70.57

PnL

+$2.98

Record

28%

367-935 (1302)

god83743894<$100

Invested

$62.1

Value

$63.9

PnL

+$1.8

Record

15-322 (337)

Haradwaith<$100

Invested

$48.61

Value

$37.94

PnL

+$0.53

Record

—

8-8 (16)

alex20011<$100

Invested

$34

Value

$35.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

44%

1068-1376 (2444)

pollo07<$100

Invested

$34

Value

$35.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

27%

499-1317 (1816)

VictorLudorum<$100

Invested

$20.4

Value

$21.3

PnL

+$0.9

Record

—

0-13 (13)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$15.35

Value

$16

PnL

+$0.65

Record

52%

244-227 (471)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$4.74

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.28

Record

36%

173-306 (479)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$3.89

Value

$4.12

PnL

+$0.23

Record

35%

2882-5322 (8204)

WarriorH

Invested

$108.53

Value

$1.48

PnL

-$3.17

Record

—

0-12 (12)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.91

Value

$0.5

PnL

-$1.22

Record

—

1-10 (11)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 17 top traders (94%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

16 traders

Top 2 hold 39%

Freshness

Late

77h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

94% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 39% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 94% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.0%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.