Will Viper win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 95¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 29

Yes5¢No95¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$69.54

Smart Money Entry

92.8¢ → 94.7¢

+2% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes5%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,135

Combined PnL+$67.43

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.28

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$2.11

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938	Noavg 92.8¢	$476.99	$506.99	+$52.75	41% 3602-5114 (8716)
Anjun	Noavg 90.4¢	$319.06	$346.23	+$27.17	55% 5484-4526 (10010)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$72.3	$70.16	-$2.14	27% 3479-9270 (12749)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 95¢	$87.27	$67.61	-$9.04	43% 18507-24169 (42676)
dips.<$100	Noavg 94.5¢	$52.94	$54.51	-$0.54	46% 12136-14078 (26214)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$40.8	$40.47	-$0.34	50% 9315-9358 (18673)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$14.42	$13.98	-$0.44	46% 6881-8137 (15018)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$10.01	$9.73	+$0.18	34% 3942-7559 (11501)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 94.8¢	$4.88	$4.86	-$0.02	70% 16761-7351 (24112)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$4.94	$4.8	-$0.13	30% 2853-6533 (9386)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 94.7¢	$3.75	$3.74	-$0.01	46% 6626-7759 (14385)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0.77	$0.28	+$2.11	50% 355-348 (703)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938

Invested

$476.99

Value

$506.99

PnL

+$52.75

Record

41%

3602-5114 (8716)

Anjun

Invested

$319.06

Value

$346.23

PnL

+$27.17

Record

55%

5484-4526 (10010)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$72.3

Value

$70.16

PnL

-$2.14

Record

27%

3479-9270 (12749)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$87.27

Value

$67.61

PnL

-$9.04

Record

43%

18507-24169 (42676)

dips.<$100

Invested

$52.94

Value

$54.51

PnL

-$0.54

Record

46%

12136-14078 (26214)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

$40.47

PnL

-$0.34

Record

50%

9315-9358 (18673)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$14.42

Value

$13.98

PnL

-$0.44

Record

46%

6881-8137 (15018)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$10.01

Value

$9.73

PnL

+$0.18

Record

34%

3942-7559 (11501)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.86

PnL

-$0.02

Record

70%

16761-7351 (24112)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$4.94

Value

$4.8

PnL

-$0.13

Record

30%

2853-6533 (9386)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.74

PnL

-$0.01

Record

46%

6626-7759 (14385)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.28

PnL

+$2.11

Record

50%

355-348 (703)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.9%

94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.