Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Villarreal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.4¢ · $508 held · ends Jun 20, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sun, Jun 20, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$508.21

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

1.7¢ → 0.4¢

-74% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$508.21

Total Shares112,935

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
50-PenceCTR	Yesavg 1.9¢	$1.6K	$372.23	$-1.2K	39% 158-246 (404)
Gucky-45CTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$243.9	$90	-$153.9	32% 651-1414 (2065)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$73.17	$27	-$46.17	44% 650-818 (1468)
RA rainbowliliesCTR<$100	Yes	$9	$9	-$28.07	40% 2659-3917 (6576)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yes	$3.6	$3.6	-$15.45	56% 3077-2425 (5502)
TH TheGreatBetaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$6.1	$2.25	-$3.85	38% 495-815 (1310)
thefakenickCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$2.47	$2.22	-$0.25	56% 828-654 (1482)
GI GingerMcKennaCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$9.51	$1.9	-$7.61	38% 2935-4691 (7626)

50-PenceCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,571.72

Value

$372.23

PnL

$-1.2K

Record

39%

158-246 (404)

Gucky-45CTR

Yes

Invested

$243.9

Value

$90

PnL

-$153.9

Record

32%

651-1414 (2065)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.17

Value

$27

PnL

-$46.17

Record

44%

650-818 (1468)

rainbowliliesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

-$28.07

Record

40%

2659-3917 (6576)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.6

PnL

-$15.45

Record

56%

3077-2425 (5502)

TheGreatBetaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.1

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$3.85

Record

38%

495-815 (1310)

thefakenickCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.47

Value

$2.22

PnL

-$0.25

Record

56%

828-654 (1482)

GingerMcKennaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.51

Value

$1.9

PnL

-$7.61

Record

38%

2935-4691 (7626)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.5%

0.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6472.68

Max Loss

-$100.00

6572.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.