Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026-27 NBA MVP?

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 70¢ · $1K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$336.8

Smart Money Entry

69.3¢ → 69.5¢

+0% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$620.25

Total Shares2,067

Combined PnL+$317.39

No9 traders

Total Value$568.57

Total Shares812

Combined PnL+$19.41

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

362h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR	Yes	$318.39	$318.39	+$70.24	45% 2406-2980 (5386)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Yes	$161.11	$161.11	+$157.76	43% 3085-4124 (7209)
Lucerys	Noavg 71¢	$112.12	$109.67	-$2.45	79% 11953-3142 (15095)
balthazar	Noavg 67.1¢	$103.39	$107.35	+$4.52	53% 28631-25561 (54192)
LP lpgb	Noavg 69.6¢	$104.47	$104.28	-$0.19	24% 302-944 (1246)
WA WarriorH	Noavg 70.6¢	$105.98	$82.84	-$3.74	17% 1065-5312 (6377)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$2.34	$60.01	+$57.67	55% 3082-2481 (5563)
SA SaylorMoon	Noavg 66.8¢	$470.63	$59.64	+$22.23	53% 940-837 (1777)
SP SPLPB<$100	Noavg 71¢	$51.3	$50.18	-$1.12	24% 692-2171 (2863)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 71¢	$42.63	$41.7	-$0.93	54% 22035-19135 (41170)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100	Yesavg 32¢	$43.84	$41.1	-$2.06	25% 1630-4964 (6594)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$60.52	$20.4	+$15.29	16% 266-1363 (1629)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.2¢	$0.77	$19.24	+$18.49	50% 1695-1681 (3376)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 62¢	$6.99	$7.9	+$0.85	53% 7951-7061 (15012)
LE LesterDiamond<$100	Noavg 66¢	$4.77	$5.02	+$0.25	62% 5596-3462 (9058)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR

Yes

Invested

$318.39

Value

$318.39

PnL

+$70.24

Record

45%

2406-2980 (5386)

BiggggggggCTR

Yes

Invested

$161.11

Value

$161.11

PnL

+$157.76

Record

43%

3085-4124 (7209)

Lucerys

Invested

$112.12

Value

$109.67

PnL

-$2.45

Record

79%

11953-3142 (15095)

balthazar

Invested

$103.39

Value

$107.35

PnL

+$4.52

Record

53%

28631-25561 (54192)

lpgb

Invested

$104.47

Value

$104.28

PnL

-$0.19

Record

24%

302-944 (1246)

WarriorH

Invested

$105.98

Value

$82.84

PnL

-$3.74

Record

17%

1065-5312 (6377)

UbuntuTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$60.01

PnL

+$57.67

Record

55%

3082-2481 (5563)

SaylorMoon

Invested

$470.63

Value

$59.64

PnL

+$22.23

Record

53%

940-837 (1777)

SPLPB<$100

Invested

$51.3

Value

$50.18

PnL

-$1.12

Record

24%

692-2171 (2863)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$42.63

Value

$41.7

PnL

-$0.93

Record

54%

22035-19135 (41170)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$43.84

Value

$41.1

PnL

-$2.06

Record

25%

1630-4964 (6594)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.52

Value

$20.4

PnL

+$15.29

Record

16%

266-1363 (1629)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.77

Value

$19.24

PnL

+$18.49

Record

50%

1695-1681 (3376)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$6.99

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$0.85

Record

53%

7951-7061 (15012)

LesterDiamond<$100

Invested

$4.77

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$0.25

Record

62%

5596-3462 (9058)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 70%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

362h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 75% · 4

Aligned

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.