Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will USD be less than 2.0M Iranian rials on December 31?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 9.0¢ · $201 held · ends Dec 31

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$201.39

Combined PnL

-$33.33

Smart Money Entry

13.4¢ → 9¢

-33% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$82.22

Total Shares908

Combined PnL-$42.55

No3 traders

Total Value$119.12

Total Shares131

Combined PnL+$9.22

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

774h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GR grothCTR	Yesavg 13.6¢	$109.37	$72.47	-$36.89	66% 295-155 (450)
SM smallreceipt<$100	Noavg 83.9¢	$58.7	$63.7	+$5	49% 8980-9523 (18503)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 84.6¢	$69.84	$36.4	+$2.98	18% 4435-20817 (25252)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 87.3¢	$42.97	$19.02	+$1.24	58% 20305-14907 (35212)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 8.9¢	$62.65	$4.77	-$2.1	27% 7006-19139 (26145)
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$5.41	$3.04	-$2.37	77% 12530-3845 (16375)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100	Yes	$1.93	$1.93	-$1.2	55% 4504-3724 (8228)

grothCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.37

Value

$72.47

PnL

-$36.89

Record

66%

295-155 (450)

smallreceipt<$100

Invested

$58.7

Value

$63.7

PnL

+$5

Record

49%

8980-9523 (18503)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$69.84

Value

$36.4

PnL

+$2.98

Record

18%

4435-20817 (25252)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$42.97

Value

$19.02

PnL

+$1.24

Record

58%

20305-14907 (35212)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.65

Value

$4.77

PnL

-$2.1

Record

27%

7006-19139 (26145)

Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.41

Value

$3.04

PnL

-$2.37

Record

77%

12530-3845 (16375)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.93

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$1.2

Record

55%

4504-3724 (8228)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

774h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.4%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$856.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

956.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.