Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (70%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will USD be between 2.7M and 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 31¢ · $148 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$148.06
$2.94
Research grade
NeutralNo at 31%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 70%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
429h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME melonmanm<$100 | Yesavg 34.7¢ | $24.3 | $49.7 | +$23.65 | 65% 488-263 (751) |
 2B9SCTR | Noavg 73.6¢ | $93.82 | $46.29 | -$47.53 | 18% 3792-17166 (20958) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Yesavg 56.6¢ | $53.05 | $26.48 | +$10.23 | 53% 6441-5643 (12084) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 19.7¢ | $5.22 | $17.04 | +$11.82 | 32% 4384-9435 (13819) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Yesavg 23.7¢ | $3.79 | $8.55 | +$4.76 | 53% 326-294 (620) |
Invested
$24.3
Value
$49.7
PnL
+$23.65
Record
65%
488-263 (751)
2B9SCTRInvested
$93.82
Value
$46.29
PnL
-$47.53
Record
18%
3792-17166 (20958)
Invested
$53.05
Value
$26.48
PnL
+$10.23
Record
53%
6441-5643 (12084)
Invested
$5.22
Value
$17.04
PnL
+$11.82
Record
32%
4384-9435 (13819)
Invested
$3.79
Value
$8.55
PnL
+$4.76
Record
53%
326-294 (620)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.