Will USD be between 2.5M and 2.6M Iranian rials on November 30?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $96 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$95.87
-$4.81
91.4¢ → 84.5¢
-8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lucerys<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $37.72 | $35.67 | -$2.05 | 37% 3136-5367 (8503) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $27.3 | $26.1 | -$1.2 | 40% 1439-2157 (3596) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $18 | $17.4 | -$0.6 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $9.2 | $8.7 | -$0.5 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $8.46 | $8 | -$0.46 | — 1-18 (19) |
Lucerys<$100Invested
$37.72
Value
$35.67
PnL
-$2.05
Record
37%
3136-5367 (8503)
Invested
$27.3
Value
$26.1
PnL
-$1.2
Record
40%
1439-2157 (3596)
balthazar<$100Invested
$18
Value
$17.4
PnL
-$0.6
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$9.2
Value
$8.7
PnL
-$0.5
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$8.46
Value
$8
PnL
-$0.46
Record
—
1-18 (19)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.