Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 100¢ · $445 held · ends Oct 30

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$444.53

Combined PnL

-$107.61

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$298.87

Total Shares418

Combined PnL-$114.95

Yes4 traders

Total Value$145.66

Total Shares700

Combined PnL+$7.34

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CoinTrick	Noavg 99¢	$413.82	$298.87	-$114.95	98% 3157-75 (3232)
FI firegoldCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$78	$85.5	-$6	59% 309-217 (526)
HY hymoluCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.5¢	$34.64	$49.26	+$14.61	81% 26-6 (32)
perfectnostalgiaCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.4¢	$5.12	$10.82	+$6.15	55% 336-270 (606)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$7.5	$0.08	-$7.43	18% 519-2317 (2836)

CoinTrick

Invested

$413.82

Value

$298.87

PnL

-$114.95

Record

98%

3157-75 (3232)

firegoldCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78

Value

$85.5

PnL

-$6

Record

59%

309-217 (526)

hymoluCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.64

Value

$49.26

PnL

+$14.61

Record

81%

26-6 (32)

perfectnostalgiaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.12

Value

$10.82

PnL

+$6.15

Record

55%

336-270 (606)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.5

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$7.43

Record

18%

519-2317 (2836)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.