Back to Markets
NoNo
balthazar<$100NoNo
HaradwaithCTR<$100YesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the US national average gas price be less than $3.8200 on November 15?
Resolved No. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
6
Yes 67%
Total Value
$10.02
Combined PnL
-$27.66
Smart Money Signal
Yes
2 of 6 top traders (33%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
Loading chart data…
Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No4 traders
Total Value$10.02
Total Shares10
Combined PnL-$19.87
Yes2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares100
Combined PnL-$7.79
No — 67%Yes — 33%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northdrawer<$100 | Noavg 96.3¢ | $9.63 | $10 | +$0.37 | 30% 1186-2734 (3920) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $25.15 | $0.02 | -$3.86 | 26% 55-157 (212) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $29.02 | $0 | -$4.03 | 42% 5242-7255 (12497) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 96.8¢ | $90.54 | $0 | -$12.35 | 28% 3327-8522 (11849) |
HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $3.4 | — | -$3.18 | 29% 339-813 (1152) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $12.96 | — | -$4.61 | 23% 812-2703 (3515) |
NO
northdrawer<$100Invested
$9.63
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.37
Record
30%
1186-2734 (3920)
DO
donthackme<$100Invested
$25.15
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$3.86
Record
26%
55-157 (212)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.02
Value
$0
PnL
-$4.03
Record
42%
5242-7255 (12497)
QW
qwen300.fund<$100Invested
$90.54
Value
$0
PnL
-$12.35
Record
28%
3327-8522 (11849)
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$3.4
Value
—
PnL
-$3.18
Record
29%
339-813 (1152)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$12.96
Value
—
PnL
-$4.61
Record
23%
812-2703 (3515)
Chat
Market Info
Condition ID
0xf1078688...9454e0
Slug
will-us-gas-price-be-less-than-3pt82-on-november-15-2026