Will the US national average gas price be between $3.9800 and $3.9899 on November 11?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $109 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$109.49
-$1.32
99¢ → 98¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $69.51 | $68.46 | -$1.05 | 30% 2654-6198 (8852) |
CI cigarettes<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $19.62 | $19.56 | -$0.06 | 53% 5580-4967 (10547) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $13.07 | $13.03 | -$0.04 | 51% 4598-4501 (9099) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $7.99 | $7.82 | -$0.17 | 78% 314-87 (401) |
 HoshinoAICTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $0.62 | $0.62 | +$0 | 48% 10-11 (21) |
Invested
$69.51
Value
$68.46
PnL
-$1.05
Record
30%
2654-6198 (8852)
Invested
$19.62
Value
$19.56
PnL
-$0.06
Record
53%
5580-4967 (10547)
balthazar<$100Invested
$13.07
Value
$13.03
PnL
-$0.04
Record
51%
4598-4501 (9099)
Invested
$7.99
Value
$7.82
PnL
-$0.17
Record
78%
314-87 (401)
HoshinoAICTR<$100Invested
$0.62
Value
$0.62
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
10-11 (21)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.