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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.

Will the US national average gas price be $4.1200+ on November 6?

Resolved No. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

8

Yes 100%

Total Value

$0.17

Combined PnL

-$25.78

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$0.17

Total Shares1,120

Combined PnL-$25.78

No1 trader

Total Value$0

Total Shares0

Combined PnL+$0

Yes — 88%No — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100	Yes	$0.17	$0.17	+$0	38% 1238-2019 (3257)
balthazarCTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	52% 31079-29042 (60121)
LucerysCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.5¢	$8.94	—	-$5.45	71% 13984-5672 (19656)
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.1¢	$0.42	—	-$0.42	53% 12604-11065 (23669)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$31.77	—	+$0	44% 2320-2943 (5263)
LP lpgbCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.44	—	-$0.44	27% 621-1686 (2307)
AH aHjCzCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$19.58	—	-$19.47	36% 5968-10706 (16674)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100	Yes	—	—	+$0	39% 320-506 (826)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR<$100

Invested

$0.17

Value

$0.17

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1238-2019 (3257)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

31079-29042 (60121)

LucerysCTR<$100

Invested

$8.94

Value

—

PnL

-$5.45

Record

71%

13984-5672 (19656)

qwen300.fundCTR<$100

Invested

$0.42

Value

—

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

12604-11065 (23669)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$31.77

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

2320-2943 (5263)

Invested

$0.44

Value

—

PnL

-$0.44

Record

27%

621-1686 (2307)

Invested

$19.58

Value

—

PnL

-$19.47

Record

36%

5968-10706 (16674)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

39%

320-506 (826)

Smart Money Signal

Yes

7 of 8 top traders (88%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x6412ed4b...24dfde

Slug

will-us-gas-price-be-4pt12-or-more-on-november-6-2026

Traders in this Market

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702

Yes — $0.17

balthazar

Yes — $0

Lucerys

Yes — $0

qwen300.fund

Yes — $0

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

No — $0

lpgb

Yes — $0

aHjCz

Yes — $0

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Yes — $0

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