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No
balthazar<$100NoYesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the US national average gas price be $3.8600+ on November 15?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 75%
Total Value
$10
Combined PnL
-$29.17
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No2 traders
Total Value$10
Total Shares10
Combined PnL-$4.65
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares65
Combined PnL-$24.52
No — 40%Yes — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $9.9 | $10 | +$0.1 | 42% 1706-2334 (4040) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $29.75 | — | -$4.76 | 42% 5242-7255 (12497) |
QW qwen300.fundCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $76.67 | — | -$15.4 | 28% 3327-8522 (11849) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $13.22 | — | -$4.89 | 23% 812-2703 (3515) |
DO donthackmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.7¢ | $4.23 | — | -$4.23 | 26% 55-157 (212) |
HA
haveagoodday<$100Invested
$9.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.1
Record
42%
1706-2334 (4040)
balthazar<$100Invested
$29.75
Value
—
PnL
-$4.76
Record
42%
5242-7255 (12497)
QW
qwen300.fundCTR<$100Invested
$76.67
Value
—
PnL
-$15.4
Record
28%
3327-8522 (11849)
LU
luciebotCTR<$100Invested
$13.22
Value
—
PnL
-$4.89
Record
23%
812-2703 (3515)
DO
donthackmeCTR<$100Invested
$4.23
Value
—
PnL
-$4.23
Record
26%
55-157 (212)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xe19d10e5...854ee0
Slug
will-us-gas-price-be-3pt86-or-more-on-november-15-2026