Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 280M by October 30, 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 2.5¢ · $92 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$91.85
-$397.38
63.1¢ → 2.5¢
-96% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 49.1¢ | $51.28 | $74.06 | +$22.78 | 17% 4208-19852 (24060) |
 theta-thunbergCTR | Yesavg 64.6¢ | $234.84 | $9.4 | -$225.43 | 56% 429-342 (771) |
ST Started-with-20-USDCTR | Yesavg 60¢ | $24 | $7.61 | -$172.38 | 55% 638-527 (1165) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 76.2¢ | $23.13 | $0.77 | -$22.35 | 57% 1117-849 (1966) |
2B9S<$100Invested
$51.28
Value
$74.06
PnL
+$22.78
Record
17%
4208-19852 (24060)
theta-thunbergCTRInvested
$234.84
Value
$9.4
PnL
-$225.43
Record
56%
429-342 (771)
Invested
$24
Value
$7.61
PnL
-$172.38
Record
55%
638-527 (1165)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$23.13
Value
$0.77
PnL
-$22.35
Record
57%
1117-849 (1966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.