Will US births in 2026 be less than 3.50 million?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 100¢ · $48 held · ends May 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$48.03
-$11.41
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $29.72 | $29.72 | +$0 | 50% 7809-7848 (15657) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $10.98 | $10.98 | +$0 | 37% 1392-2377 (3769) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $5.05 | $5.05 | -$0 | 41% 941-1363 (2304) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $2.03 | $2.08 | +$0.04 | 21% 2284-8684 (10968) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $11.65 | $0.2 | -$11.45 | 31% 1407-3191 (4598) |
Invested
$29.72
Value
$29.72
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7809-7848 (15657)
Invested
$10.98
Value
$10.98
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
1392-2377 (3769)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
941-1363 (2304)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.03
Value
$2.08
PnL
+$0.04
Record
21%
2284-8684 (10968)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$0.2
PnL
-$11.45
Record
31%
1407-3191 (4598)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.