Will US births in 2026 be between 3.62 million and 3.65 million?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 94¢ · $56 held · ends May 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$56.4
-$7.41
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI mildwindow27<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $28.2 | $28.2 | +$0 | 49% 7442-7773 (15215) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $10.42 | $10.42 | +$0 | 37% 1392-2377 (3769) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $6.66 | $6.66 | +$0 | 56% 3736-2985 (6721) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $4.83 | $4.83 | +$0 | 35% 704-1298 (2002) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.3¢ | $11.65 | $4.53 | -$7.13 | 31% 1407-3191 (4598) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.1¢ | $2.03 | $1.75 | -$0.28 | 21% 2284-8684 (10968) |
Invested
$28.2
Value
$28.2
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
7442-7773 (15215)
Invested
$10.42
Value
$10.42
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
1392-2377 (3769)
Invested
$6.66
Value
$6.66
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3736-2985 (6721)
Invested
$4.83
Value
$4.83
PnL
+$0
Record
35%
704-1298 (2002)
Invested
$11.65
Value
$4.53
PnL
-$7.13
Record
31%
1407-3191 (4598)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$2.03
Value
$1.75
PnL
-$0.28
Record
21%
2284-8684 (10968)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.