Will US births in 2026 be between 3.56 million and 3.59 million?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 60¢ · $267 held · ends May 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$266.95
$35.1
59.8¢ → 60¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 58.4¢ | $160.23 | $128.72 | +$4.49 | 53% 7524-6651 (14175) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.9¢ | $57.21 | $88.56 | +$31.35 | 49% 1837-1904 (3741) |
SP SPLPB<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $33.5 | $30.75 | -$2.75 | 24% 666-2082 (2748) |
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100 | Noavg 57.3¢ | $9.34 | $9.78 | +$0.44 | 56% 3736-2985 (6721) |
 LornaPredicts<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $15.76 | $4.92 | +$1.36 | 21% 2284-8684 (10968) |
0X 0x69f0C154a3412F2b3Fa7eB22c6d08E6B5B32FB27-1778811502354<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $4.01 | $4.22 | +$0.21 | 41% 941-1363 (2304) |
Invested
$160.23
Value
$128.72
PnL
+$4.49
Record
53%
7524-6651 (14175)
0xdc3E831cadCTR<$100Invested
$57.21
Value
$88.56
PnL
+$31.35
Record
49%
1837-1904 (3741)
Invested
$33.5
Value
$30.75
PnL
-$2.75
Record
24%
666-2082 (2748)
Invested
$9.34
Value
$9.78
PnL
+$0.44
Record
56%
3736-2985 (6721)
LornaPredicts<$100Invested
$15.76
Value
$4.92
PnL
+$1.36
Record
21%
2284-8684 (10968)
Invested
$4.01
Value
$4.22
PnL
+$0.21
Record
41%
941-1363 (2304)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.