Will US births in 2026 be between 3.53 million and 3.56 million?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 67¢ · $323 held · ends May 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$323.01
-$0.59
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 72.7¢ | $375.99 | $304.3 | -$25.6 | 17% 402-1971 (2373) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 72.7¢ | $232.87 | $214.61 | -$19.12 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 29.8¢ | $95.33 | $89.69 | -$6.49 | |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 67.2¢ | $12.09 | $11.35 | -$0.48 | 35% 704-1298 (2002) |
LU luciebot<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $7.47 | $7.36 | -$0.11 | 37% 1393-2380 (3773) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$375.99
Value
$304.3
PnL
-$25.6
Record
17%
402-1971 (2373)
Both legs:
Invested
$12.09
Value
$11.35
PnL
-$0.48
Record
35%
704-1298 (2002)
Invested
$7.47
Value
$7.36
PnL
-$0.11
Record
37%
1393-2380 (3773)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.