Will United Arab List (Ra'am) win 4.75-5.5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 52¢ · $116 held · ended Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$116.03
$12.24
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 WordleAddict<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $50 | $54.5 | +$4.5 | 61% 937-610 (1547) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $25 | $28.75 | +$3.75 | 65% 484-260 (744) |
 Sardinianshepherd<$100 | Yesavg 65.1¢ | $16.64 | $16.88 | -$7.18 | 65% 923-506 (1429) |
 vinii<$100 | Yesavg 9.6¢ | $3.05 | $13.53 | +$10.47 | 74% 2703-970 (3673) |
 BiDiFakePolls<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $1.67 | $2.37 | +$0.7 | 58% 172-124 (296) |
WordleAddict<$100Invested
$50
Value
$54.5
PnL
+$4.5
Record
61%
937-610 (1547)
Invested
$25
Value
$28.75
PnL
+$3.75
Record
65%
484-260 (744)
Sardinianshepherd<$100Invested
$16.64
Value
$16.88
PnL
-$7.18
Record
65%
923-506 (1429)
vinii<$100Invested
$3.05
Value
$13.53
PnL
+$10.47
Record
74%
2703-970 (3673)
BiDiFakePolls<$100Invested
$1.67
Value
$2.37
PnL
+$0.7
Record
58%
172-124 (296)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.