Will Ulises Mejía Haro win the 2027 Zacatecas Governor Election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 77¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$1.0K
$59.92
59.1¢ → 77¢
+30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 77%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Noavg 54.3¢ | $485.44 | $688.13 | +$238.44 | 53% 1088-976 (2064) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $60.75 | $241.16 | -$168.04 | 55% 443-357 (800) |
 archaic | Noavg 90.6¢ | $118.71 | $100.87 | -$9.98 | 85% 1868-338 (2206) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $16.82 | $5.29 | -$0.49 | 32% 273-576 (849) |
Invested
$485.44
Value
$688.13
PnL
+$238.44
Record
53%
1088-976 (2064)
FrozenParasiteCTRInvested
$60.75
Value
$241.16
PnL
-$168.04
Record
55%
443-357 (800)
archaicInvested
$118.71
Value
$100.87
PnL
-$9.98
Record
85%
1868-338 (2206)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$16.82
Value
$5.29
PnL
-$0.49
Record
32%
273-576 (849)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.