Will UK annual inflation be between 3.7% and 3.9% in October?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 55¢ · $568 held · ends Nov 18

Yes55¢No45¢Ends Wed, Nov 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$567.55

Combined PnL

$121.33

Smart Money Entry

43.6¢ → 54.5¢

+25% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes55%

No46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$437.53

Total Shares769

Combined PnL+$93.22

No6 traders

Total Value$130.02

Total Shares304

Combined PnL+$28.1

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 35.8¢	$140.29	$219.25	+$78.96	—
perfectnostalgia	Yesavg 52.7¢	$189.75	$196.25	+$6.5	—
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	No	$42.5	$42.5	+$42.5	— 0-2 (2)
ME merodCTR<$100	Noavg 47.4¢	$39.78	$35.28	-$4.5	— 7-1 (8)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$14.27	$22.04	+$7.77	54% 19-16 (35)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$18.24	$18.43	+$0.19	38% 93-154 (247)
HoshinoAICTR<$100	Noavg 63.8¢	$25.48	$16.96	-$8.52	—
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$8.4	$8.5	+$0.1	6% 9-142 (151)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$10.01	$8.34	-$1.67	— 0-3 (3)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$140.29

Value

$219.25

PnL

+$78.96

Record

—

perfectnostalgia

Yes

Invested

$189.75

Value

$196.25

PnL

+$6.5

Record

—

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Invested

$42.5

Value

$42.5

PnL

+$42.5

Record

—

0-2 (2)

merodCTR<$100

Invested

$39.78

Value

$35.28

PnL

-$4.5

Record

—

7-1 (8)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.27

Value

$22.04

PnL

+$7.77

Record

54%

19-16 (35)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$18.24

Value

$18.43

PnL

+$0.19

Record

38%

93-154 (247)

HoshinoAICTR<$100

Invested

$25.48

Value

$16.96

PnL

-$8.52

Record

—

smallreceiptCTR<$100

Invested

$8.4

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.1

Record

9-142 (151)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Invested

$10.01

Value

$8.34

PnL

-$1.67

Record

—

0-3 (3)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 55%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Mature

45h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.