Will Tyreek Hill sign with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 59¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$20.05
57.7¢ → 58.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 57.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | +$26.39 | 49% 1812-1894 (3706) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $399.17 | $390.97 | -$1.86 | 27% 281-769 (1050) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 66¢ | $257.97 | $226.76 | -$32.3 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $133.19 | $164.21 | +$30.44 | |
 DOLLAR-PRINTERCTR | Yesavg 64¢ | $106.17 | $61.49 | -$44.68 | 56% 3480-2697 (6177) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $59.75 | $53.35 | -$6.4 | 52% 2019-1846 (3865) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 47.2¢ | $27.89 | $14.08 | +$4.64 | 57% 13137-10012 (23149) |
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$1,597.61
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$26.39
Record
49%
1812-1894 (3706)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$399.17
Value
$390.97
PnL
-$1.86
Record
27%
281-769 (1050)
Both legs:
DOLLAR-PRINTERCTRInvested
$106.17
Value
$61.49
PnL
-$44.68
Record
56%
3480-2697 (6177)
Invested
$59.75
Value
$53.35
PnL
-$6.4
Record
52%
2019-1846 (3865)
Invested
$27.89
Value
$14.08
PnL
+$4.64
Record
57%
13137-10012 (23149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.