Will Tung Tzu-wei win the next Keelung Mayor election?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 71¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$2.5K
$115.99
76.1¢ → 71¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 76.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$119.99 | 56% 15513-12121 (27634) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 16.1¢ | $419.63 | $728.58 | +$256.91 | 50% 1219-1210 (2429) |
ME merod | Noavg 74.3¢ | $400.58 | $382.62 | -$17.96 | 44% 2775-3595 (6370) |
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100 | Noavg 80.5¢ | $49.17 | $12.12 | -$2.97 | 54% 3919-3397 (7316) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$1,529.95
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$119.99
Record
56%
15513-12121 (27634)
Invested
$419.63
Value
$728.58
PnL
+$256.91
Record
50%
1219-1210 (2429)
Invested
$400.58
Value
$382.62
PnL
-$17.96
Record
44%
2775-3595 (6370)
Invested
$49.17
Value
$12.12
PnL
-$2.97
Record
54%
3919-3397 (7316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.