Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 93¢ · $949 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 63%

Total Value

$949.5

Combined PnL

$35.22

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 93¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$938.71

Total Shares987

Combined PnL+$52.14

Yes3 traders

Total Value$10.79

Total Shares220

Combined PnL-$16.91

No — 63%Yes — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

4926h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SI simpleman	Noavg 89.4¢	$640.55	$667.55	+$27	47% 468-530 (998)
mombil	Noavg 81.7¢	$160.54	$182.41	+$21.88	56% 1244-996 (2240)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88.3¢	$53.32	$34.52	+$1.49	58% 21212-15411 (36623)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 90¢	$31.46	$33.28	+$1.82	77% 12685-3871 (16556)
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100	Noavg 93¢	$20.46	$20.94	-$0.04	56% 18814-14972 (33786)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.7¢	$22.31	$9.13	-$13.19	17% 4496-22003 (26499)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$5	$0.96	-$4.04	19% 2871-12245 (15116)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$0.39	$0.7	+$0.31	51% 154-147 (301)

simpleman

Invested

$640.55

Value

$667.55

PnL

+$27

Record

47%

468-530 (998)

mombil

Invested

$160.54

Value

$182.41

PnL

+$21.88

Record

56%

1244-996 (2240)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$53.32

Value

$34.52

PnL

+$1.49

Record

58%

21212-15411 (36623)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$31.46

Value

$33.28

PnL

+$1.82

Record

77%

12685-3871 (16556)

0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495<$100

Invested

$20.46

Value

$20.94

PnL

-$0.04

Record

56%

18814-14972 (33786)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.31

Value

$9.13

PnL

-$13.19

Record

17%

4496-22003 (26499)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.96

PnL

-$4.04

Record

19%

2871-12245 (15116)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.39

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$0.31

Record

51%

154-147 (301)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

4926h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

10 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.2%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.18

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.